An August 10th DDM update states that forecasters have relocated the disturbance (7th August update) farther north. It is located over 650 miles to the east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles along 51W. It is moving west-northwestward at 12 mph. Thunderstorms have increased farther north with the disturbance. However, it remains disorganized. It is expected to pass north of the Caribbean by Wednesday. It is unlikely to develop due to hostile upper level conditions over the next several days.
Disturbance 1 is located 2205 miles to the east-southeast of the British Virgin Islands near 10N, 32.5W. It is moving to the west at 15 mph. This disturbance continues to gradually become better organized. Environmental conditions will remain favorable for tropical development through the middle of this week as this system moves westward to west-northwestward across the Tropical Atlantic. However, forecasters think conditions may become less favorable for any further development or intensification late this week as it nears the northeastern Caribbean. If the system holds together, this system could affect the northeastern Caribbean by Sunday or next Monday. The risk of tropical development has increased to near 60 percent.
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