The Caribbean is bracing for a heat season expected to begin as early as April, with the potential for heatwaves.
According to the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum, while the heat is expected to ramp up in the coming months, it is unlikely to reach the extreme levels seen in 2023 and 2024.
CariCOF’s latest Caribbean Climate Outlook, which covers the period from April to June, attributes the predicted conditions to a combination of neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions in the Pacific, abnormally warm waters surrounding the Caribbean, and temporarily cooler waters in the eastern Tropical North Atlantic.
The forum warns that high evaporation rates, frequent dry spells, and ongoing drought conditions will increase the risk of wildfires in the region.
For the upcoming months, CariCOF predicts that rainfall intensity will increase in the Bahamas, the Guianas, and the Greater Antilles by May, with the Lesser Antilles and Belize expected to see similar increases by June.
This heightened rainfall, combined with frequent episodes of Saharan dust, raises concerns about flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards.
The ongoing dry conditions in the region are also a cause for concern. CariCOF reports that moderate to severe short-term drought has already developed in parts of the Bahamas, the Cayman Islands, and the Virgin Islands, as well as portions of Sint Maarten and St. Bart’s.
Long-term drought conditions are emerging in southern Belize, northern Dominican Republic, southwest Jamaica, and several other areas in the Caribbean.
As the Caribbean prepares for this challenging period, the forum stresses the importance of continued monitoring and early action to mitigate the potential impacts of severe weather and drought conditions.