The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more active than usual, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasting a 60% chance of above-normal activity from June 1 to November 30. The outlook includes 13 to 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 likely to become hurricanes, and 3 to 5 potentially intensifying into major hurricanes.
Driving the elevated risk are a mix of atmospheric and oceanic conditions: unusually warm ocean temperatures, neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions, and a potentially stronger West African Monsoon, all of which create favorable conditions for storm formation and intensity.
Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm noted the importance of readiness. “The impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond the coast, as we saw last year with major inland flooding,” she said. NOAA’s forecasts aim to give communities the lead time needed to protect lives and property.
Ahead of the 2025 season, NOAA introduced several key improvements:
– Enhanced Forecasting Accuracy: Upgrades to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System are expected to improve forecast precision by 5%.
– Earlier Warnings: Advisories can now be issued up to 72 hours in advance for storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds.
– Extended Outlooks: The Global Tropical Hazards Outlook now covers up to three weeks ahead.
– New Communication Tools: Spanish-language products and an experimental forecast cone graphic will improve accessibility and clarity.
– Advanced Data Collection: Hurricane hunter aircraft will carry the new ROARS radar system to collect ocean and wind data from inside storms.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is also rolling out a new Probabilistic Precipitation Portal to better predict inland flooding risks up to three days in advance.
NOAA will release an updated hurricane outlook in early August, ahead of the season’s historical peak.
