Global average temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels over the next five years, according to a new climate outlook issued by the World Meteorological Organization and produced by the UK’s Met Office.
The Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update projects that annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will likely range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels measured against the 1850-1900 average.
According to the report, there is an 86 percent chance that at least one year during the period will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
Scientists also estimate a 91 percent probability that global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one year between 2026 and 2030. Meanwhile, there is a 75 percent likelihood that the five-year average itself will exceed the 1.5°C threshold.
The report stresses, however, that temporary yearly exceedances do not necessarily mean the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement are unattainable, as those targets are assessed over decades rather than individual years.
The update also highlights continued concerns about the Arctic, where temperatures during upcoming northern hemisphere winters are projected to warm at a rate significantly faster than the global average. Scientists forecast further declines in Arctic sea ice and shifting precipitation patterns worldwide, including wetter conditions across northern high latitudes and drier conditions in some subtropical regions.
Among projected regional trends, forecasts suggest increased rainfall may become more likely in areas including the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while drier conditions are anticipated over parts of the Amazon region.
The WMO said the forecasts are intended to guide climate planning by regional climate centres and national meteorological agencies as governments and institutions prepare for the impacts of continued global warming.