The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is already showing signs that it is going to be a busy one.
On July 8, researchers at the Colorado State University (CSU) increased its 2021 Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast slightly and continues to forecast an above-average 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season.
It is now predicting 20 named storms:
- Four major hurricanes (Category 3+)
- Nine hurricanes
This forecast includes the five that have already formed-Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny and Elsa in the Atlantic as of July 7.
In its April 8, 2021, Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast, the university had predicted 17 named storms which were then increased to 18 in a second forecast on June 3.
Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at CSU, explained on Twitter that one reason for the active Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast from CSU is due to the very robust West African monsoon so far. He says stronger easterly waves and more conducive upper-level winds for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic are typically associated with active monsoon.
The CSU in its extended range forecast notes that Elsa’s development and intensification into a hurricane in the tropical Atlantic also typically portends an active season.
The University says it anticipates an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
CSU will release the final seasonal update of its 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast in August.